A monte Carlo simulation can’t ever tell you if something will happen. Instead it can show you a probability distribution of things happening. Imagine flipping a coin 1000 times. Monte Carlo would run 1000 flips, and then tell you things like “how often did 6 heads in a row turn up”‘. So when the battle simulator says “gumbi defeats barny 650 times” you can think of it this way: if we know nothing about gumbi, and nothing about barny, we can expect gumbi to win a fight 65% of the time.

You can use Monte Carlo simulations to determine things like “how much does luck factor in to an outcome”, for example. In the end it’s just a way of modeling probability distributions and performing risk/uncertainty assessments. I think Slytharen did an okay job, given that nobody else is doing it.

I suspect the slytaren software doesnt actually share the opinions of the hosts in terms of edge factor, as can be demonstrated by the musketeers episode (armor saved the day)

You could apply the same methods to UFC. Given that there are so many unknowns with each fighter, we could determine how much the unknowns factor in to a particular fighters outcome. Again, this would never be able to predict a fights outcome, but could give you improved odds versus just looking at things like win/loss ratios. It could also help you understand which factors are the most important in terms of fight outcome (this is called a sensitivity analysis)

Personally I find the show a lot of fun, even if i do disagree with the hosts a lot of the time. Having played at sword fighting for many years, I would always pick a shield and dagger over a sword any day. Swords are pretty much useless once you get within a certain range.

Example: Alexander the Great and Attila the Hun. In this episode, they tested swords; and Alexander’s Greek dagger lost because it was smaller and did not cut as deep. Depth of cuts is not what prevails in combat; the object does not have to be to kill, it is to remove the combatant from the battle. A man who has one leg is of no use in ancient Greek warfare; so their dagger was more than functional. The distance one fights also comes into account. If one is up tight and close; then a smaller blade is not only faster, but also capable of reaching where a longer one will not. They do not calculate the manner in which the weapons are used; they simply calculate which ones these non professional computer programmers and medics like better.

Bottom line is the show is an utter failure because the sole determining factor in combat is the level of skill of the individual soldier and not in the weapons he uses.

The examples you cited making a sandwich was used by me when teaching ppl programming.
to teach the steps, you would do in making a sandwich, never mind if you wrote it out
in the “language” you understood (not the computer), it was to teach you the sequance of each
instruction of the task—n: Making a peanut butter and jelly sandwich.

I was also ‘influentual” to both Dave Hargrave, Dave Arnseson, both creators of “simulations”
involving in combat. from a random number generator (dice).

Computers are very good at math,and depending on the S.E.E.D. gives a random number,this random
number could be “linked” to a table that dependant on the attack type, could also give a range for
the damage given reduced by the protection value of the “target” of said attack. In the damage done
table would also depend on IF it was a killing one. Admittedly there are missing factors they’re not
taking into consideration but only with the weapons tested.

One other thing….to the kid up top who says no one on here will get a date because they are “too busy arguing a show.” I disagree WHOLE heartedly. I’m a girl. I Love DW. Am I saying it is historically accurate? Not at all. Am I saying I have an unhealthy obsession for historical weapons? Abso-fucking-lutely.

And as my group of guy friends always says “There’s nothing sexier….or quite possibly scarier…than a woman who knows her weapons.” So, have fun with your prissy girls, little boy!

As for the atrocity I just witnessed. Cortes vs Ivan the Terrible. Of the 20 factors. They didn’t include Ivan’s fanaticism as a good thing. Ivan’s troops would never leave him or abandon him BECAUSE he would have them and their families killed. Cortes’ troops were only loyal for the money, and they ONLY fought against… wait a minute… The previous season’s JAGUARS… Unarmored and without firearms. Ivan the Terrible fought against opposing armies. They claimed “Battlefield Experience” was a factor, but didn’t mentions Cortes’ lack of it. Or that Ivan fought against opponents with Cortes’ weapons and armor and won, not in simulation, but in the Real World. Cortes’ troops would have fled without the promise of payment and those who stayed behind would have list to Ivan’s troops’ experience and superior knowledge of tactics.

Overall I love the show, but these random episodes of WTF do demonstrate the flaws of the program, and that’s why they’ve made a new program. However, it still has limitations placed upon it by the programmers. It’s meant to promote the video game. Poor Max Geiger’s been canned for a game designer, but life goes on… As for who is the deadliest warrior… Cybernetic Ninja Spartans who’s arm cannon fires acid grenades and mini-nukes before turning into a plasma sword. Duh!